Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
